I took some time off from picking fights because my computer blew up and the back up was so horrible that I couldn't stand to use it (to watch old fights/research)
I'll be picking the next three UFC PPV's for free just to make more people notice.
Next up: UFC 128 Jones vs Shogun with Crocop vs Schaub and Marquardt vs Akiyama. I'll let you know my picks soon enough.
I sent out an e-mail explaining lack of picks. family stuff. Hope everything works out for everyone and I'll be back for the next event. One pick I can give you for sure though....Lyoto Machida. Bet at least 3 units on him
I'm probably going to release my picks for 122 for free, but I'm definitely going to release my picks for 123 for free. As much as I love you brave few who've given me a chance and are that much richer for it, I'd sure like it if more signed up. To make that happen, I'm going to show them how good I am by releasing said free picks. When I nail another 80% or higher, maybe they'll join up. Of course, I can't give them anything for free and ask you to pay, so of course it's free for you too.
We'll start the process with this:
Wow. As a fan, I'm very excited. Rampage was one of the original guys that made me love this sport. Back when I told my friend Drake that I had seen the UFC on TV and thought it was awesome, he said "oh yeah? well check this out..." and started showing me Pride fights on youtube and you know quite of few of them were Rampage Jackson. Lyoto, though, is a true inspiration. As a wannabe martial artists myself, he's exactly the type of person to look up to. The type of person that makes me say "I'd like to be like him" There's a huge mental difference between fighter and martial artist, Lyoto is a martial artists, and I mean that as a huge compliment because fighters are basically idiots and tough guys while martial artists ascend to something greater.
As a gambler and your personal handicapper, we have to take a long hard look at the odds. One thing I'll always tell you is not to be tricked by the odds. I hear it all the time, "well I actually think X is going to win but at those odds Y has a good chance." That's complete bullshit and a good way to lose money. Remember what your teachers tought you in school? Your first thought is usually right, don't think about it too hard. The same idea applies to picking sports. If it seems obvious to you that Lyoto is going to win, then who cares if Rampage +200 or +2000. It doesn't help you at all if he loses. However, if you see something in Rampage's game that counters Lyoto and you really do think he's going to win, then the fact that you'll double your money is just an icing on the cake. A lot of wannabe pro's who think they know what they're doing criticize me for laying the price, aka betting on favorites. I use to agree but there's two big problems with what they do: MMA Lines are sharp. The favorite wins over 80% of the time in mma (I know you're thinking you see a lot of upsets but it just doesn't happen as much as you think) For this reason, it's not the best idea to sit around and wait for good underdog bets. Also, they are used to people that eek by on 55-60% win ratios. I sit closer to 80 at any given time so I can afford it. My point being, some people like look at Lyoto vs Rampage and say "Go Rampage or go home, because at those odds Lyoto is not worth it" Why not? If you really think he's going to win, winning 5 bucks is better then losing 20$ on Rampage. This is where odds trick you. They making you think betting 20$ to win 40$ on Rampage is better then betting 20$ to win 8$ on Lyoto, except that if Rampage loses you don't get that 40$, at least you'll actually get that 8$ with Lyoto.
Just sayin'
PS: No Lyoto is not my official pick.....yet
I really hope I'm wrong about this fight. I haven't actually done the research yet but unlike most fights, I doubt I have to since I remember their last 3 fights each by heart. I say I really hope I'm wrong because I love Matt Hughes but BJ should probably destroy him. When the lines first opened Hughes was the favorite, now Penn is -160 because I think people are coming to their senses. The truth is, 5 years ago, Hughes could truly beat BJ Penn, any BJ Penn but this isn't 2005, it's 2010 and Matt had two of his back to back ugliest wins ever against Serra and Renzo. The Renzo fight made even worse by how old and out of shape Renzo was. Then the Almeida fight happened and even though I picked Matt, it still showed me things that have me doubting he could beat BJ. For one, he was actually losing the stand up. Every exchange he was getting hit with 2 punches and not landing anything. If it weren't for his iron chin, he would've been in trouble. BJ hands? Still great. So Matt was losing and caught him with a left hook. Awesome, couldn't have been happier. But how does this help against BJ? BJ who's never been dropped by a punch. BJ who would outstrike Matt all day. That leaves the wrestling and the ground game. Edgar took BJ down easier then anyone ever has which is giving some of us Matt Hughes fans hope... ...except that I realize Frankie and Matt are two completely different type of athletes. Matt is slow and strong, while Frankie is ridicuously quick. It was that whirlwind speed that overwhelmed BJ and made it easy for Frankie to get those takedowns. Matt on the other hand, didn't show any takedowns against Renzo or Almeida, and the last fight he did show some, his top game didn't look that great at all. He couldn't do any damage whatsoever. Fortunatly, BJ has looked less and less dangerous from the bottom. So a LNP victory is possible but I haven't seen any old fashion Hughes ground and pound in a long time and I'm not sure he still has it in him. The big problem with this fight, the whole reason Matt was favored at first, is that people see BJ slipping against Frankie, but that's Frankie, a man in his prime, a champion. Matt's an old vet who's a lot slower then he used to be, which isn't to say he was ever very fast.
I'll go over some the tapes and let you know but I'm leaning toward BJ.
PS: Aaron Simpson and Matt Brown are underdogs? Hmmm
My current track record (is better then you think)
Imagine if a soft drink company came out with some new fancy energy drink and it sucked and everyone fell on their faces, I guess that company is going out of business right? Did I mention that soft drink company was CocaCola and this energy drink is just one of their many products?Yea, they'll be fine lol
It's the same way with me and Brock. Obviously I was way off on that one, but that was just one, and for the few if you who signed up, you'll know I also picked Hamill, Shields, Sanchez, and Schaub so I actually did very well at 121, as did you if you followed my advice (and didn't go too big on Brock)
Well as you can see I've been ignoring the blog because I just e-mail you anyway but I got to thinking, it's sure not helping with new peopleSo I thought I'd give a recap of how we've all done in the last few months Like I said, ufc 121+4 for the rest, -1 for Brock
Ufc 120: bisping, condit, fisher, Kongo+3 -1
119: mir, bader, lytle, dolloway, mccorkle, sherk, guillard, mitrioni+8 (my best event ever)Fight Night: marquardt (didn't charge for that since it was just one)+1
That's 22-3 since ufc 118 So I've actually been kicking ass lately and haven't gotten more then one wrong per event in a long time. I'm strongly considering giving my 123 picks out for free, and possibly 122 but I'm not sure.I just want more to know how legit this is, and how easy it is to make money if you listen to yours truly
I'm going to start actually telling you the units of my bets and will give results after shows and sometimes will tell you why I made certain picks
Anyway,
Ok here's my units
Most people so units in dollars, I go by percent
What your bankroll is, is your business but i say never bet more than 20%
let's say 1 unit is 1% and 20 is 20%
There are also Bank bets that are 2-3 times a year Locks that you bet huge on, that's the only time you go above 20%
Jones over Matyushenko +20 units
Munoz over Okami -5 units
Ellenberger over Howard +3 units
Gomi over Griffin +10 units (I couldn't believe those odds)
Brian Stann + 3 units
Matthew Riddle +6 units
Paul Kelly -5 units
Result: +32 units
Youre welcome lol
Now more sign up for next week. I'm already more confident in that event
I thought I'd put this in a nice big blog post because let's face it, nobody likes reading the about me. I'm selling my mma picks so that you can make easy money. I have a high win % that is guaranteed to make you money (as long as you bet on my picks, you WILL make money), So here's what you need to do. For either 50$ a card (or 6.50$ per fight if you just want to test things out and/or are too cheap for the whole card), you e-mail me (natman2939@aol.com) and tell me what you want, paypal me the money, and within 6 hours of the fight I will e-mail you my picks. Got it? Good. Now let's make some money. Hey, what's 50$ when you're making hundreds? Thousands? and what's 6.50$x1 x2 x3 to try out a few fights?
One of the picks Ive made already for one of the two upcoming ppvs is a nice little underdog. Frankly I don't know why he's a dog. I'd have him as the favorite and he's one of my favorite picks so far (even more so than a lot of the favorites)
Want to know who? Sign up!
Natman
